Vol. 10, No 2, 2013 pp. 119 - 128
UDC 614.8.086.4:519.8:621.182.42
DETERMINATION OF HEALTH RISK ZONES FROM AIR POLLUTION IN THE CITY OF NIŠ CAUSED BY THE PRESENCE OF SOOT WITH THE USE OF THE RBF NEURAL NETWORK
Amelija Đorđević1, Branimir Todorović2, Nenad Živković1, Miomir Raos1, Lidija Milošević1
1Faculty of Occupational Safety in Niš
2Faculty of Science and Mathematics in Niš
Abstract. This paper determines and presents the health risk zones in relation to the concentration of soot particles present in the ambient air of the city of Niš for the analyzed period from 1995 to 2011. The originality of the method applied in this paper for assessing territorial health risks lies in predicting the concentration of soot particles in the ambient air of Niš. The prediction of the concentration of soot particles was conducted using the RBF (Radial Basis Function) neural network. So far, prediction of the concentration of pollutants in the ambient air was based on the knowledge of emission concentrations of pollutants by certain polluters, as well as on the knowledge of transmission of pollutants in the atmosphere. Given that the transmission of pollutants in the atmosphere is a complex process, prediction of concentrations in the ambient air based on emission concentrations requires knowledge of meteorological data, terrain topography, physical and chemical transformations of pollutants, and their diffusion and deposition. For these reasons, application of the RBF neural network is simpler, while the results are satisfactory. The maximum absolute error when determining health risk zones on the territory of Niš using the RBF neural network is 10-4 or less. For the analyzed period of time between 1995 and 2011, health risk zones in the city of Niš with values of soot concentrations exceeding the allowed limits were found in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011. The value of the total carcinogenic risk in these years, in the health risk zones, ranged from 3.5710-6 to 3.3010-5. The values of the total carcinogenic risk were determined as the product of the population's exposure to concentrations of soot particles and the coefficient of carcinogenicity.
Key Words: health risk, health risk zone, soot, radial basis functions, total cancer risk
ODREĐIVANJE ZONA ZDRAVSTVENOG RIZIKA AMBIJENTALNOG VAZDUHA U GRADU NIŠU UZROKOVANOG PRISUSTVOM ČAĐI KORIŠĆENJEM RBF NEURONSKE MREŽE
U radu se određuje prisustvo zona zdravstvenog rizika u odnosu na koncentraciju čestica čađi prisutnih u ambijentalnom vazduhu grada Niša za analizirani period od 1995. do 2011. godine. Originalnost primenjene metode u ovom radu, za procenu prostornog zdravstvenog rizika je u predviđanju koncentracije čestica čađi u ambijentalnom vazduhu grada Niša. Predviđanje koncentracije čestica čađi urađeno je primenom RBF (Radijalne Basisne Funkcije) neuronske mreže. Predviđanje koncentracije zagađujućih supstanci u ambijentalnom vazduhu bazirano je na poznavanju imisionih koncentracija zagađujućih supstanci koje se prate u okviru postojeće mreže monitoringa, kao i na poznavanju transmisije polutanata u atmosferi. Kako je proces transmisije polutanata u atmosferi veoma složen, predviđanje koncentracija u ambijentalnom vazduhu, baziran na emisionim koncentracijama, zahteva poznavanje meteoroloških podataka, topografiju terena, fizičke i hemijske transformacije polutanata i njihovu difuziju i depoziciju. Iz tih razloga, primena RBF neuronskih mreža je jednostavnija, a rezultati zadovoljavajući. Maksimalna apsolutna greška pri određivanju zona zdravstvenog rizika na teritoriji grada Niša su reda veličine 10-4 ili manje. Za analizirani vremenski period između 1995. i 2011. godine, zone zdravstvenog rizika u gradu Nišu sa vrednostima koncentracijama čađi iznad dozvoljene granice prisutne su u 2001., 2002., 2003., 2008., 2009., 2010. i 2011. godini. Vrednost totalnog kancerogenog rizika u ovim godinama u odnosu na zone zdravstvenog rizika nalaze se u opsegu od 3.5710-6 do 3.3010-5. Vredosti ukupnog kancerogenog rizika određene su kao proizvod ekspozicije čestica čađi na određenu populaciju i kancerogenog koeficijenta.
Ključne reči: zdravstveni rizik, zona zdravstvenog rizika, čađ, RBF neuronske mreže, ukupni kancerogeni rizik