Vol.7, No 1, 2009 pp. 149 - 155
UDC 657.424
RISK QUANTIFICATION APPROCHES TO THE ASSESMENT OF ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY OF INVESTMENTS
Jaroslava Janeková1, Andrea Krauszová1, Slavica Cvetković2
1Technical University of Košice, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering Department of Management and Economics, Němcovej 32, 042 00 Košice Slovak Republic
2Faculty of Technical Sciences, Kosovska Mitrovica, Serbia
E-mail: jaroslava.janekova@tuke.sk
Abstract. In order to increase the quality of investment decision making in a company it is important, regarding economic efficiency evaluation of investments, to pay more and more attention to risk quantification. In this case, the risk is primarily related to the cash flow of investment being assessed. Its reflection in the final value of the given economic criterion – net present value – can be estimated by different approaches. With the direct risk evaluation, the evaluation basis is the determination of the cash flow probability of investment by applying statistical characteristics such as the method of standard deviation and the diffusion and variation coefficient. In economic practice the process of taking risk into account is usually performed indirectly. It is simpler and it mainly comprises the methods of discount rate adjustment, the determination of risk classes, the method of certainty coefficient or that of real options. The mentioned approaches to risk quantification have their specifications, which are described in the paper.
Key Words: Investment, Risk, Cash Flow, Discount Rate, Coefficient of Probability, Real Options.
PRISTUP MERENJU RIZIKA U PROCENJIVANJU EKONOMSKE EFIKASNOSTI INVESTICIJA
Da bi se povecao kvalitet donosenja odluka o investiranju u jednoj kompaniji, važno da se prilikom procenjivanja ekonomske efikasnosti investicija posveti velika paznja proceni rizika. U ovom slučaju, rizik je prvenstveno povezan sa protokom novca od investiranja koje se procenjuje. Njegov prikaz u poslednjoj proceni datog kriterijuma-prisutna vrednost na mreži-može da se dobije različitim pristupom. Kada se primenjuje direktna procena rizika, osnova je odredjivanje mogućnosti protoka novca od investiranja primenom statističkih karakteristika: metode standardne devijacije, difuzije i koeficijenta varijacije. U ekonomskoj praksi proces razmatranja rizika se često odvija indirektno. Jednostavnije je i najčešće se dešava uskladjivanjem stope popusta, odredjivanja klasa rizika, metode koeficijenta sigurnosti ili realnih opcija. Pomenuti pristupi proceni rizika imaju svoje karakteristike, koje su opisane u članku.
Ključne reči: investiranje, rizik, dijagram toka, dikontne rate, koeficijent, realna opcija