Vol. 10, No 4, 2013 pp. 389 - 399
UDC 65.011.2:657.92
INVESTMENT COUNTRY RISK PREMIUM INFLUENCE ON AN ENTERPRISE ESTIMATED VALUE
Sanja Vlaović Begović, Mirela Momčilović, Dragana Bolesnikov
Visoka poslovna škola strukovnih studija, Novi Sad, Serbia
Many business decisions are brought according to enterprise estimated value. Determinants that govern the value of an enterprise, being estimated according to discounted cash flows, are objective assumptions on cash flow movements in the future period, a constant rate of the enterprise growth in residual period of time and a discount rate. While calculating the discount rate, it is necessary to take into consideration the investment country risk premium which depends on the mark of investment country political stability, its legal system, tax rates, stability of the currency and other parameters. In that way, the investment country risk premium influences the result of estimation and consequently, the business decision of an investor. Different ways of investment country risk premium determination shall be introduced in this work, as well as their advantages, limitations and the way in which the risk premium fluctuation influences the estimated value of an enterprise. In determination of the investment country risk premium influence on the value of an estimated enterprise by cash flow discounting, we will give an overview of legislation and methodology for performing estimation of the values of enterprises in the Republic of Serbia.
Key Words: investment country risk premium, yield rate of the own capital, enterprise value, discounting, cash flows
UTICAJ PREMIJE RIZIKA ZEMLJE ULAGANJA NA VREDNOST PROCENJENOG PREDUZEĆA
Mnoge poslovne odluke se donose na osnovu procenjene vrednosti preduzeća. Determinante koje određuju vrednost preduzeća procenjenog na osnovu diskontovanih novčanih tokova su objektivne pretpostavke o kretanju novčanih tokova u budućem periodu, konstantna stopa rasta preduzeća u rezidualnom periodu i diskontna stopa. Prilikom izračunavanja diskontne stope potrebno je uzeti u obzir i premiju rizika zemlje ulaganja, koja zavisi od ocene političke stabilnosti zemlje ulaganja, njenog pravnog sistema, poreskih stopa, stabilnosti valute i drugih parametara. Kao takva, premija rizika zemlje ulaganja ima uticaj na rezultat procene, a time i na poslovnu odluku investitora. U radu će biti predstavljeni različiti načini određivanja premije rizika zemlje ulaganja, njihove prednosti i ograničenja, kao i to na koji način fluktuacije premije rizika utiču na procenjenu vrednost preduzeća. Pri utvrđivanju uticaja premije rizika zemlje ulaganja na vrednost procenjenog preduzeća diskontovanjem novčanih tokova, napraviće se osvrt na zakonske propise o metodologiji procene vrednosti preduzeća u Republici Srbiji.
Ključne reči: premija rizika zemlje ulaganja, stopa prinosa sopstvenog kapitala, vrednost preduzeća, diskontovanje, novčani tokovi
