Vol.8, No 4, 2011 pp. 421 - 431
UDC 519.246.8
FORECASTING ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION BY USING HOLT-WINTERS AND SEASONAL REGRESSION MODELS
Vinko Lepojević, Marija Anđelković-Pešić
Faculty of Economics, University of Niš, Serbia
vinko.lepojevic@eknfak.ni.ac.rs
Electricity is a key energy source in each country and an important condition for economic development. Reliable forecast of energy consumption represents a starting point in policy development and improvement of production and distribution facilities. The paper predicts the electricity consumption in the area covered by Elektroistok Ltd Nis during the period November 2011 - October 2012. For the purposes of these forecasts, Holt-Winters method and appropriate seasonal regression models were used.
Key Words: Time series, Holt-Winters method, seasonal regression models, electricity consummation
PROGNOZIRANJE POTROŠNJE ELEKTRIČNE ENERGIJE KORIŠĆENJEM HOLT-WINTERS I SEZONSKOG REGRESIONOG MODELA
Električna energija predstavlja ključni energent svake zemlje i bitan uslov privrednog razvoja. Pouzdane prognoze potrošnje ovog energenta su polazna osnova u kreiranju politike razvoja i unapredjenja proizvodnih i distributivnih kapaciteta. U radu se prognozira potrošnje električne energije na području koje pokriva Elektroistok Niš d.o.o. u periodu novembar 2011 - oktobar 2012. Za potrebe ove prognoze korišćen je Holt-Wintersov metod izravnanja i odgovarajući sezonski regresioni modeli.
Ključne reči: vremenske serije, Holt-Wintersov metod, sezonski regresioni modeli, potrošnja električne energije
