Vol.7, No 3, 2010 pp. 263 - 270
UDC 339.743(497.11)
THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE DEPRECIATION ON BUSINESS CONDITIONS IN SERBIA
Miloš Todorović, Mario Veličković
Faculty of Economics, University of Niš, Serbia
milos.todorovic@eknfak.ni.ac.rs
The exchange rate is a macroeconomic variable with multiple influences on the real and financial sector. Exchange rate's changes, in a fluctuating system, affect the inflation rate, import, export, trade deficit, foreign direct investments, as well as the macroeconomic situation in a country. The fact is that the great foreign currencies income on various bases, before the crisis, enabled a more relaxing exchange rate policy and an easier way to the exchange rate and system stability. However, a sudden fall of foreign currencies income and their outcome growth caused significant depreciation of the Serbian currency. In this paper we analyze how the effects of currency depreciation are reflected in businesses of the real and financial sector, as well as foreign trade transactions.
Key Words: exchange rate, depreciation, dinar, National Bank of Serbia
UTICAJ DEPRESIJACIJE DEVIZNOG KURSA NA POSLOVANJE U SRBIJI
Devizni kurs je makroekonomska varijabla sa višestrukim uticajem na realni i finansijski sektor. Promene nivoa deviznog kursa, u fluktuirajućem režimu, reflektuju se na stopu inflacije, izvoz, uvoz, spoljnotrgovinski deficit, strane direktne investicije, odnosno na privredni i makroekonomski ambijent zemlje. Činjenica je da je veliki priliv deviza po raznim osnovama, pre krize, omogućavao relaksiraniju politiku kursa i lakši put do stabilnosti kursa i sistema. Međutim, sa naglim padom priliva i rastom odliva deviza, srpska valuta je počela značajnije da depresira. U radu analiziramo kako se efekti slabljenja valute reflektuju na poslovanje u realnom i finansijskom sektoru, kao i na sektor spoljnotrgovinske razmene.
Ključne reči: devizni kurs, depresijacija, dinar, Narodna banka Srbije
