Vol.7, No 1, 2010 pp. 17 - 33
UDC 330.34:338.124.4(497.11)
MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANT OF ECONOMIC
GROWTH
AND WORLD ECONOMIC-FINANCIAL CRISIS
Vladimir Ristanović
Faculty of International Economics, Megatrend University, Belgrade,
Serbia
vristanovic@megatrend.edu.rs
Economic measures in circumstances of world economic and financial crisis
can not be of universal character. Specific characteristics, as well as
differences between economic systems should result in specific proposals
for creating economic policy. The paper at the beginning analyzed macroeconomic
determinants that influence economic growth and development. Hence, the
paper analyzed specific characteristics of CEEC-5 countries in the period
1993-2007. By econometric analysis, using GMM dynamic panel model, real
and monetary determinants influence on economic growth and development
in this region is estimated. Also, descriptive statistic has provided possibilities
for insight of specific characteristics of countries inside the region
individually. Different specific characteristics of countries and different
influence of macroeconomic variables on economic growth has as result different
effects of world economic and financial crisis. At the end of the paper,
an analysis of the implemented measure of creating economic policy in the
mentioned countries has, first and foremost, provided a solid basis for
creating economic policy in Serbian economy. In the focus of the analysis
is the real sector of economy and reaction on effects of world crisis in
recent years.
Key Words: economic growth and development, real sector
of economy, world economic and financial crisis, CEEC-5, Serbian economy
MAKROEKONOMSKE DETERMINANTE RASTA I SVETSKA
EKONOMSKO-FINANSIJSKA KRIZA
Mere ekonomske politike u uslovima svetske ekonomsko-finansijske krize
ne smeju biti univerzalnog karaktera. Specifičnosti kao i razlike koje
postoje između privrednih sistema trebalo bi da rezultiraju i posebnim
rešenjima prilikom kreiranja ekonomske politike. U radu su prvo analizirane
makroekonomske veličine koje utiču na privredni rast i razvoj. Potom
su analizirane specifičnosti zemalja regiona CEEC-5 u periodu 1993-2007.
godina. Ekonometrijskom analizom, uz pomoć dinamičkog panel modela –
GMM, ocenjen je uticaj realnih i monetarnih determinanti na privredni rast
i razvoj celokupnog regiona, dok je deskriptivna statisika pružila mogućnost
sagledavanja specifičnosti zemalja unutar regiona pojedinačno. Različite
specifičnosti zemalja i različiti uticaji makroekonomskih veličina na
rast ovih privreda imale su za rezultat i različite posledice efekata
svetske ekonomsko-finansijske krize. Na kraju je analiza primenjenih mera
ekonomske politike pomenute grupe zemalja pružila dobru osnovu za kreiranje
ekonomske politike u privredi Srbije. U fokusu analize nalazi se realni
sektor privrede i reakcije na svetsku ekonomsku krizu poslednjih godina.
Ključne reči: privredni rast i razvoj, realni sektor privrede,
svetska ekonomsko-finansijska kriza, CEEC-5, privreda Srbije
