Vol.7, No 1, 2010 pp. 1 - 15
UDC 338.124.4:339.93(497.11)
THE WORLD ECONOMIC CRISIS IMPACT ON SERBIA
IN THE CONTEXT OF ITS ASSOCIATION WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION
Milan Stamatović1, Savo Radonjić2, Ana Anufrijev2*
1Faculty for Management Studies, Novi Sad, Serbia
stamatovicm@sbb.rs
2Alfa University, Belgrade, Serbia
savo.radonjic@gmail.com, *anufrijevana@hotmail.com
The most common causes of crisis are usually big credit expansions. The current global economic crisis, which, without exaggeration can be construed as crises of the West, was created in the center of the world's financial system and in this sense is special compared to the previous one which marked the twentieth century on one hand, and similar to that of 1929 on the other. The share of the US, EU and Asia in the global financial sector losses 57% and respectively 39% and 4%. Serbia was a marginal player on the world stage and the big blow was referred to the crisis. The general conclusion is not at all optimistic because indicators will move the business climate in Serbia and in the future there will be an almost identical trend in the EU, so that the changes in Serbia for the most part depend on the momentum that will be coming to EU markets.
Finally, the transition in the Western Balkans is at the same time both an economic and a political process. All economies of the Western Balkans (Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, FYR Macedonia and Albania) reported negative effects on macroeconomic indicators as a consequence of the economic crisis, but they are on the way to EU membership, even though each of these countries varies in degrees of accession.
Due to many problems that Sebia is facing, due to the aforementioned problems in the economic arena, but also because of the numerous political problems, which can not be ignored, Serbia will soon be able to become part of the big European family. In a situation where it is more than necessary to absorb the effects of the global economic crisis, it is of crucial importance for Serbia to approach the EU carefully, fulfilling criteria for joining. Specifically, the effects of a possible "Quick admission" would have multiple negative economic consequences and in this case would be more than just the desire for connection.
Key Words:  Global economic crisis, competitiveness, European Union, Western Balkans, free trade zone, trade policy
UTICAJ SVETSKE EKONOMSKE KRIZE NA SRBIJU
U KONTEKSTU NJENOG PRIKLJUČIVANJA EVROPSKOJ UNIJI
Najčešći uzroci nastanka kriza uglavnom su zebeleženi velikim kreditnim ekspanzijama. Aktuelna globalna ekonomska kriza, koja se bez preterivanja može tumačiti i kao kriza Zapada, nastala je u središtu svetskog finansijskog sistema i u tom smislu je posebna u odnosu na prethodne koje su obeležile XX vek sa jedne strane, ali i slična onoj iz 1929. god. sa druge strane. Procenjuje se da je udeo u SAD, EU i Aziji u gubitku svetskog finansijskog sektora 57% i respektivno 39% i 4%. Srbija iako je marginalni igrač na svetskoj sceni, pod velikim je udarom pomenute krize. Opšti zaključak nije nimalo optimističan jer će kretanje indikatora poslovne klime u Srbiji u budućnosti biti gotovo istovetno trendu u EU, tako da će promene u Srbiji u najvećoj meri zavisiti od impulsa koji budu stizali sa tržišta EU.
Najzad, tranzicija u zemljama Zapadnog Balkana predstavlja istovremeno i ekonomski i politički proces. Sve ekonomije zemalja Zapadnog Balkana (Srbija, Crna Gora, Hrvatska, BiH, BJR Makedonija i Albanija) beleže negativne efekte u makroekonomskim pokazateljima kao posledicu ekonomske krize, ali su i na putu ka članstvu u EU, iako je svaka od pomenutih zemalja na različitom stepenu pristupanja.
Usled mnogobrojnih zadataka koji stoje pred Srbijom, usled pomenutih problema na ekonomskoj sceni, ali i usled brojnih političkih problema, koji se ne smeju zanemariti, Srbija neće moći uskoro da postane deo velike evropske porodice. U situaciji kada je više nego neophodno amortizovati efekte svetske ekonomske krize, za Srbiju je od ključnog značaja da EU pristupa oprezno, uz ispunjenje zadatih kriterijuma za priključenje. Naime, efekti eventualnog "brzog" prijema bili bi višestruko negativni i ekonomske posledice u tom slučaju bile bi veće od same želje za priključenjem.
Ključne reči: Globalna ekonomska kriza, konkurentnost, Evropska Unija, Zapadni Balkan, zona slobodne trgovine, trgovinska politika