Vol. 4, No 1, 2006
pp. 41 - 50
UDC 550.348.098.64:624.042.7:519.2(497.11)
(045)=20
SELECTION OF THE APPROPRIATE METHODOLOGY
FOR THE
DETERMINISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT ON THE TERRITORY OF THE REPUBLIC
OF SERBIA
Borko Bulajić1,
Miodrag Manić2
1The Highway Institute Inc., Belgrade,
Serbia
2Institute of Earthquake Engineering
and Engineering Seismology,
University "Ss. Cyril and Methodius", Skopje,
Republic of Macedonia
Abstract. This paper presents a discussion
regarding the most common approaches to the deterministic seismic hazard
analysis, as well as their relation with the probabilistic hazard analysis.
Different methodologies for estimation of the strong earthquake ground
motion at a site of interest on the territory of the Republic of Serbia
are also discussed. When generation of the synthetic ground motion time
histories on the territory of the Republic of Serbia is concerned, a method
developed by Trifunac and his associates is suggested, having in mind that
this approach uses only those input parameters that can be easily and accurately
defined while at the same time being able to model all properties of strong
earthquake ground motion that are presently known, as well as to consider
the probabilistic nature of earthquake occurrence.
Key words: Deterministic hazard
analysis, estimation of the strong earthquake ground motion at a site of
interest, Republic of Serbia
ODABIR ODGOVARAJUĆE METODOLOGIJE
ZA
DETERMINISTIČKO OCENJIVANJE SEIZMIČKOG HAZARDA NA TERITORIJI REPUBLIKE
SRBIJE
U ovom radu diskutovani su najčešći pristupi determinističkoj
analizi seizmičkog hazarda, kao i njihov odnos sa probabilističkom analizom
hazarda. Diskutovane su takođe i različite metodologije za ocenjivanje
jakog kretanja tla usled zemljotresa za lokaciju od interesa na teritoriji
Republike Srbije. Kada je u pitanju generisanje sintetičkih vremenskih
istorija kretanja tla na teritoriji Republike Srbije, predloženo je korišćenje
metode koju je razvio Trifunac sa svojim saradnicima, imajući u vidu da
ovaj pristup koristi samo one ulazne parametre koje je moguće jednostavno
a tačno definisati, dok istovremeno omogućava modelovanje svih trenutno
poznatih osobina jakog kretanja tla usled zemljotresa, kao i uzimanje u
obzir probabilističke prirode pojave zemljotresa.
